Schedule for Week of August 30, 2020

The key report this week is the August employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the August ISM manufacturing and services indexes, August auto sales, and the July trade deficit.

For data nerds, the BLS will release their 10 year Labor Force Projections on Tuesday.

—– Monday, August 31st —–

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August. This is the last of the regional Fed surveys for August.

—– Tuesday, September 1st —–

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 54.5, up from 54.2 in July.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The PMI was at 54.2% in July, the employment index was at 44.3%, and the new orders index was at 61.5%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for July. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in construction spending.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for August. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 15.2 million SAAR in August, up from 14.5 million in July (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

10:00 AM: The BLS is scheduled to release Labor Force projections through 2029.

—– Wednesday, September 2nd —–

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for August. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 900,000 payroll jobs added in August, up from 167,000 added in July.

—– Thursday, September 3rd —–

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The early consensus is for a 950 thousand initial claims, down from 1.006 million the previous week.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for July from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $52.3 billion in July, from $50.7 billion in June.

10:00 AM: ISM Services Index for August.

—– Friday, September 4th —–

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart8:30 AM: Employment Report for August.   The consensus is for 1.40 million jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 9.8%.

There were 1.763 million jobs added in July, and the unemployment rate was at 10.2%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and the worst in terms of the unemployment rate.