Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: “Red Hot”, 12.8% YoY in March

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for February were released today. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: February 2021 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Red Hot

Already rising at a blistering pace, home price appreciation pressed higher in February as competition for housing remained red hot.

As more signs emerge that the economy’s recovery is gathering steam, a wave of eager buyers – many of them seeking their first home purchase – remain determined to find their next home. But with relatively few for-sale homes on the market, bidding wars have become increasingly common, pushing sale prices higher and leading homes to sell at a record pace. In the near-term, it appears unlikely that these upward price pressures will relent meaningfully, particularly as recent retreats in mortgage rates offer many home shoppers increased buying power. However, after pausing in February, home listing activity has shown a meaningful improvement in recent weeks and some recent signs suggest that the historically tight inventory pressures may finally be starting to ease. Should those signs materialize, the meteoric rise in home prices may finally have a reason to come back down to earth. For now, red hot home price appreciation shows few signs of cooling.

Monthly growth in March as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to slow slightly from February in both of the smaller 10- and 20-city composite indices, and accelerate slightly in the national index. Annual growth is expected to accelerate across the board. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the March S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, May 25.
emphasis added

Zillow forecast for Case-ShillerThe Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 12.8% in March, up from 12.0% in February.

The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to be up 12.7% YoY in March from 11.9% in February, and for the 10-City index to increase to be up 12.3% YoY compared to 11.7% YoY in February.