Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Year-over-year House Price Growth to Increase Slightly in July

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for June were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: June Case-Shiller Results and July Forecast: Housing Continues to Withstand Pandemic

The June Case-Shiller numbers show the housing market continues to withstand the pandemic-driven blows that have caused so many other facets of the economy to suffer. …

Mortgage rates and for-sale inventory are each plumbing new lows, ratcheting up competition for the few homes on the market. That’s placed consistent upward pressure on home prices, a trend that has held through the summer. While recent data suggest headwinds such as the enduring spread of the coronavirus and uncertainty surrounding the next round of relief payments could jeopardize the path of the economic recovery, these concerns haven’t materialized in home prices to this point. It could be that the housing market will eventually suffer as these concerns linger, but it appears that low rates are here to stay for now, which should continue to send prices higher.

Annual growth in July as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to speed up slightly in the 10- and 20-city indices, and stay steady in the national index. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the July S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, September 29.
emphasis added

Zillow forecast for Case-ShillerThe Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 4.4% in July, up from 4.3% in June (table says 4.4% in June, but CS reported a 4.3% gain).

The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to be up 3.6% YoY in July from 3.5% in June, and for the 10-City index to increase to be up 2.9% YoY compared to 2.8% YoY in June.