Russia/Ukraine headlines continued throughout the day. Although this did cause some volatility at times, markets progressively tuned out. Moreover, geopolitical risk is not destined to be the key market moving consideration unless things get appreciably worse. Even then, the primary narrative remains focused on inflation and the Fed’s evolving policy response. [30 year fixed 4.10%]
emphasis added
Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The Producer Price Index for December from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in PPI, and a 0.5% increase in core PPI.
• Also, at 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a reading of 12.0, up from -0.7.
On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):
| COVID Metrics | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | Week Ago |
Goal | ||
| Percent fully Vaccinated | 64.4% | — | ≥70.0%1 | |
| Fully Vaccinated (millions) | 214.0 | — | ≥2321 | |
| New Cases per Day3 | 161,197 | 287,209 | ≤5,0002 | |
| Hospitalized3 | 81,007 | 111,402 | ≤3,0002 | |
| Deaths per Day3 | 2,196 | 2,339 | ≤502 | |
| 1 Minimum to achieve “herd immunity” (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met. |
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Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported.