SPX Monitoring Purposes: Neutral
Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 4/9/20 at 28.96; Sold 5/18/20 at 35.92 = 24% gain.
Long Term Trend SPX Monitor Purposes: Short SPX 5/13/20 at 2820.
The divergence continues; today the SPY hit a new short-term high and closed at a new short-term high and the VIX made a higher low. Volume did expand today, but not by a lot. The McClellan Oscillator remains above “0” and bullish for now. Tops take time to form, unlike bottoms where they’re over in a flash. Being patient for now.
The bottom window is the 10 day average of the QQQ/SPY ratio. When QQQ (NDX) is outperforming SPY (SPX) a rising ratio, a bullish trend is in force and, when declining, a bearish one. This chart goes back to mid-2015 and the red vertical lines show when this ratio turned down. The circled area on the right is the current time period, which has turned down. These signals can play around a week or so, but there are now more short-term bearish signs present.
Here is an indicator that may line up for a bullish signal in the coming days. The middle window is the Bullish Percent index for the Gold Miner’s index. The top window is the RSI for the Bullish Percent index. Reliable buy signals were triggered when the RSI of the Bullish Percent index fell below 10. The blue vertical lines on chart above show when these signals where triggered. The Bullish Percent index graph was from Friday’s close and does not show today’s reading. With today’s drop in the GDX, it suggests the RSI will below lower than Friday’s closing of 25.88, which will be updated later tonight. Sold long GDX on 5/18/20 at 35.92 = 24% gain. Long GDX on 4/9/20 at 28.96.