The Ord Oracle July 28, 2020

SPX Monitoring Purposes: Sold 7/21/20 at 3257.30= gain 1.01%; Long SPX on 7/17/20 at 3224.73.

Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 7/8/20 at 38.62.

Long Term Trend SPX Monitor Purposes: Short SPX 5/13/20 at 2820.

Seasonality has turned bearish for the next couple of months, and it’s a time to be careful. The SPY is testing the February 24 gap and, so far, is not backing away. Going into last Wednesday, the SPY was up four days in a row; that suggests the market will be higher within five days 83% of the time, and tomorrow marks the fifth day. The Bottom window is the SPY/VIX ratio. When this ratio is rising, it’s a bullish sign for the SPY. Over the last week, it has flipped sideways, predicting a sideways market. Market is not giving a clear signal short-term; staying natural for now. Sold long SPX 7/21/20 at 3257.30= gain 1.01%.

SPX is up against the February gap (resistance), holding near the June high and not backing away (bullish). The bottom window is the NYSE McClellan Oscillator, which closed yesterday at +4.89 (neutral). The next window up is the 5-day average of the TRIN, which closed at 1.05 (Neutral). The next window up is the 10-day average of the TRIN, which closed at 1.06 and is also neutral. For the short-term, there is not a lot to go on, so we will stay neutral for now. Being patient.

The bottom window is the Advance/Decline percent with an 18-period moving average, while the next window up is the Up Down Volume percent with an 18-period moving average. When both indicators are above 30 (32.24 and 33.94 respectively) the uptrend in GDX continues; in most cases, it lasted a month or longer. Have been hearing rumors that GDX has gone parabolic and therefore you should sell. According to indicators in this paragraph, the parabolic move may be just beginning. Long GDX on 7/8/20 at 38.62.

Tim Ord,

Editor New Book release “The Secret Science of Price and Volume” by Timothy Ord, buy at