The Ord Oracle April 20, 2021

SPX Monitoring Purposes: Sold long 4/9/21 SPX at 4128.80= gain 6.16%; Long SPX on 3/24/21 at 3889.14.

Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.

Long Term SPX Monitor Purposes: Sold long SPX on 1/15/21 at 3768.25= gain 10.80%; Long SPX on 10/26/20 at 3400.97.

The bottom window is the closing TRIN readings. Next window up is the 2-day TRIN close. A two-day TRIN close above 1.50 shows panic (dotted blue lines) in the market and is a short-term bullish sign; below .65 (red lines) show a complacent market and is a bearish sign. Yesterday the 2-day TRIN closed at .65. To get back to a bullish picture, the TRIN would need to show panic with readings above 1.50 for a couple of days. Today’s TRIN close came in at 1.14 and not at panic levels, which suggests short-term consolidation is not done. There is an open gap near 400 on the SPY, which is a possible target. Staying neutral for now.

We updated this chart from yesterday, we said yesterday, “Last Tuesday, the 5-period RSI for the SPY hit 92. Previous readings on an RSI (5) above 90 have lead to short-term consolidation and that could be happening here. The bigger trend remains bullish, but a sideways consolidation is possible short-term. Watching the TRIN and TICK for panic readings to suggest market is near the next low.” The consolidation appears to have started. Staying patient for now.

Above is the daily HUI/NDX ratio going back to 2011. When this ratio rises, HUI is outperforming NDX; when falling, NDX is outperforming HUI. Right now, this ratio is at an area where it previously has turned up. There is a lot of evidence that gold index is starting an impulse wave. As far as investments goes in the coming weeks and maybe months, the HUI index may outperform the NDX index. We also noticed that several of our gold stock positions have the weekly Bollinger bands (BB) pinching. When the BB starts to spread, the energy will be released. The impulse rally may have started. Long GDX (10/9/20 at 40.78).

Tim Ord,

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