The market will not go down unless…
- The death rate from COVID-19 spikes – not simply the number of cases.
- The dollar keeps failing while the yuan grows in demand.
- The civil unrest surges to the point of riots, hence unavoidable disruption.
- War breaks out in North Korea or Middle East.
Otherwise, the market continues to love the Fed, who has given corporations zero rates and lots of helicopter money. The market loves Trump, who has given corporations virtually no tax bill and little regulations to worry about. The market loves the government, as they promised Americans another round of stimulus checks.
But the smart money also knows the market is a tinderbox. Hence, the metals stay strong.
All of this leads to stagflation. And the US is now 10th in terms of economic strength. We are watching the patient (market) on an IV drip, still rallying, but inching closer to its final curtain.
If you are looking for trade ideas, here is my StockCharts TV presentation from last Friday:
S&P 500 (SPY): Inside day. 312.50 pivotal. 320 big resistance, 302 support
Russell 2000 (IWM): 147.20 resistance with support at 140-141
Dow (DIA): 260 support, 263 resistance
Nasdaq (QQQ): 240-247.82 range
KRE (Regional Banks): 41.65 resistance 40.00 pivotal, 37.00 major support
SMH (Semiconductors): Inside day, Inside weeks – 139.78 last week’s low; 155 resistance
IYT (Transportation): 158 support, 168 resistance
IBB (Biotechnology): 136 support
XRT (Retail): 200-DMA 40.50 support to hold; 43.50 resistance
Volatility Index (VXX): 34.50-38.50 range