S&P 500 stabilized, but in an unconvincing way – the market breadth and sectoral view was wholy unappealing to me. Expecting risk-off rather than risk-on seems more appropriate here.
While the recent Fed liquidity moves aren‘t comparable to TARP (in the market reaction following the program announcement, thankfully for us), it‘s still true that I‘m looking for the unappealing fundamentals raising the head increasingly more, to take over (from E to P/E and beyond as you know from reading my work faithfully).
Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
Remember that historically 3rd Presidential year marked an important top, which I covered in one of the extensive Jan analysis.
The sellers even in the short run are likely to overpower the buy the dippers / no landing / all is well believers. If you‘re looking for sectoral shorting candidates for the longer term, here they are. The incoming unemployment claims and Philly Fed business index underline the economic setup that‘s going to get more acute, and over time result in no doubts about a recession in Q3 2023.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
3,915 remains the “point of control”, but I‘m looking for the bears to keep price action today in the slowly increasing distance to this key figure. 3,945 won‘t be approached again later today, and 3,890 break would be the key bearish objective (not way too hard).
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Monica Kingsley
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice.
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