Schedule for Week of November 26, 2023

The key reports this week include the 2nd estimate of Q3 GDP and October New Home Sales.

Other key indicators include the September Case-Shiller and FHFA house price indexes, October Personal Income & Outlays (and PCE), the November ISM manufacturing index, and November vehicle sales.

—– Monday, November 27th —–

New Home Sales10:00 AM: New Home Sales for October from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

The consensus is for 730 thousand SAAR, down from 759 thousand in September.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November.

—– Tuesday, November 28th —–

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for September.

This graph shows graph shows the Year over year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The National index was up 2.6% YoY in August and is expected to increase further in September.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for September. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The 2023 Conforming loan limits will also be announced.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November.

—– Wednesday, November 29th —–

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary), 3rd Quarter 2023. The consensus is that real GDP increased 5.0% annualized in Q3, up from the advance estimate of 4.9% in Q3.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

—– Thursday, November 30th —–

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Initial claims were at 209 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays, October 2023. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 3.1% YoY, and core PCE prices up 3.5% YoY.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for November.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for October. The consensus is for a 0.6% decrease in the index.

—– Friday, December 1st —–

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for November.  The consensus is for 47.7%, up from 46.7%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for October.  The consensus is for 0.4% increase in spending.

11:00 AM: Discussion, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Conversation with Spelman College President Helene Gayle, At a Fireside Chat at Spelman College, Atlanta, Ga.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for November.

The consensus is for 15.5 million SAAR in November, unchanged from the BEA estimate of 15.5 million SAAR in October (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.