Schedule for Week of May 30, 2021

The key report scheduled for this week is the May employment report.

Other key reports include the May ISM Manufacturing and Service surveys, and May Vehicle Sales.

—– Monday, May 31st —–

All US markets will be closed in observance of Memorial Day.

—– Tuesday, June 1st —–

8:00 AM: Corelogic House Price index for April.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for May. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 61.0, up from 60.7 in April. The employment index was at 55.1% in April, and the new orders index was at 64.3%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for April. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in construction spending.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May. This is the last of the regional surveys for May.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for May. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 18.0 million SAAR in May, down from 18.5 million in April (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

Wards Auto is forecasting a decline in sales to 16.5 million SAAR.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

—– Wednesday, June 2nd —–

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

—– Thursday, June 3rd —–

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for May. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 650,000 payroll jobs added in May, down from 742,000 in April.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for a decrease to 395 thousand from 406 thousand last week.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for May.   The consensus is for a reading of 63.0, up from 62.7.

—– Friday, June 4th —–

7:00 AM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Central banks and climate change, At the Green Swan 2021 Global Virtual Conference

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart8:30 AM: Employment Report for May.   The consensus is for 650,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.9%.

There were 266,000 jobs added in April, and the unemployment rate was at 6.1%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but currently is not as severe as the worst of the “Great Recession”.