Schedule for Week of June 28, 2020

The key report scheduled for this week is the June employment report to be released on Thursday.

Other key reports include the June ISM Manufacturing survey, June Vehicle Sales, April Case-Shiller house prices, and the Trade Deficit for May.

On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks on the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act.

—– Monday, June 29th —–

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for May. The consensus is for a 19.7% increase in the index.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June. This is the last of the regional surveys for June.

—– Tuesday, June 30th —–

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for April.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 3.8% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for April.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June.

12:30 PM: Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives

—– Wednesday, July 1st —–

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for June. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 3,000,000 payroll jobs added in June, up from 2,760,000 lost in May.

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.0, up from 43.1 in May.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The employment index was at 32.1% in May, and the new orders index was at 31.8%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for May. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in construction spending.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for June from the BEA. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 13.0 million SAAR in June, up from 12.2 million in May (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of June 9-10, 2020

—– Thursday, July 2nd —–

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart8:30 AM: Employment Report for June.   The consensus is for 3,074,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 12.3%.

There were 2,509,000 jobs added in May, and the unemployment rate was at 13.3%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and the worst in terms of the unemployment rate.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a 1.400 million initial claims, down from 1.480 million the previous week.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for May from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $52.4 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $49.4 Billion the previous month.

—– Friday, July 3rd —–

All US markets will be closed in observance of Independence Day.