I’m adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.
2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 million jobs in 2023. This is down from 4.8 million jobs added in 2022, and 7.3 million in 2021 (the two best years ever), but still a solid year for employment gains. How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?
| Change in Payroll Jobs per Year (000s) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Total, Nonfarm | Private | Public | |
| 1997 | 3,406 | 3,211 | 195 |
| 1998 | 3,048 | 2,735 | 313 |
| 1999 | 3,181 | 2,720 | 461 |
| 2000 | 1,938 | 1,674 | 264 |
| 2001 | -1,733 | -2,284 | 551 |
| 2002 | -515 | -748 | 233 |
| 2003 | 125 | 167 | -42 |
| 2004 | 2,038 | 1,891 | 147 |
| 2005 | 2,528 | 2,342 | 186 |
| 2006 | 2,092 | 1,883 | 209 |
| 2007 | 1,145 | 857 | 288 |
| 2008 | -3,549 | -3,729 | 180 |
| 2009 | -5,041 | -4,967 | -74 |
| 2010 | 1,027 | 1,243 | -216 |
| 2011 | 2,066 | 2,378 | -312 |
| 2012 | 2,174 | 2,241 | -67 |
| 2013 | 2,293 | 2,360 | -67 |
| 2014 | 2,998 | 2,871 | 127 |
| 2015 | 2,717 | 2,567 | 150 |
| 2016 | 2,325 | 2,118 | 207 |
| 2017 | 2,113 | 2,033 | 80 |
| 2018 | 2,284 | 2,157 | 127 |
| 2019 | 1,959 | 1,747 | 212 |
| 2020 | -9,289 | -8,237 | -1,052 |
| 2021 | 7,267 | 6,882 | 385 |
| 2022 | 4,793 | 4,518 | 275 |
| 2023 | 2,697 | 2,025 | 672 |
The good news is job market still has momentum heading into 2024.
Click on graph for larger image.
The bad news – for job growth – is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024.
| Construction Jobs (000s) | Manufacturing (000s) | |
|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 152 | -178 |
| 2007 | -195 | -269 |
| 2008 | -789 | -896 |
| 2009 | -1,047 | -1,375 |
| 2010 | -187 | 120 |
| 2011 | 144 | 207 |
| 2012 | 113 | 158 |
| 2013 | 208 | 123 |
| 2014 | 361 | 209 |
| 2015 | 337 | 70 |
| 2016 | 188 | -7 |
| 2017 | 273 | 178 |
| 2018 | 305 | 263 |
| 2019 | 132 | 5 |
| 2020 | -173 | -602 |
| 2021 | 239 | 385 |
| 2022 | 265 | 390 |
| 2023 | 197 | 12 |
For manufacturing, there will probably be some growth in the auto sector in 2024, and possibly in other manufacturing sectors. However, for construction, multi-family construction will slow in 2024, and so will several commercial real estate sectors (based on both the Architecture Billings Index and the Dodge Momentum Index.
So, my forecast is for gains of around 1.0 million to 1.5 million jobs in 2024. This would be another solid year for employment gains given current demographics.
Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2024 and a few predictions:
• Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?
• Question #3 for 2024: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2024?
• Question #4 for 2024: What will the participation rate be in December 2024?
• Question #5 for 2024: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2024?
• Question #6 for 2024: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2024?
• Question #7 for 2024: How much will wages increase in 2024?
• Question #8 for 2024: How much will Residential investment change in 2024? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2024?
• Question #9 for 2024: What will happen with house prices in 2024?
• Question #10 for 2024: Will inventory increase further in 2024?