Here is a table of some of the forecasts over the last 2+ months. The significant downgrades during the quarter were primarily due to analysts initially underestimating the recent COVID wave, and also the impact of supply chain disruptions.
| Merrill | Goldman | GDPNow | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/30/21 | 7.0% | 9.0% | 6.1% |
| 8/20/21 | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% |
| 9/10/21 | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% |
| 9/17/21 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% |
| 9/24/21 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.7% |
| 10/1/21 | 4.1% | 4.25% | 2.3% |
| 10/8/21 | 2.0% | 3.25% | 1.3% |
From BofA Merrill Lynch:
We are taking down 3Q GDP tracking to 2% from 3.8% previously, reflecting a reassessment of equipment and inventories, and the likely soft retail sales data. [Oct 8 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
Following today’s payroll miss and outright decline in education payrolls, we lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by ¼pp to 3¼% (qoq ar). [Oct 8 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 1.3 percent on October 8 [Oct 8 estimate]