Mish Warned You About Junk Bonds…

Will today’s market tremors shake the QQQ out of its solidly bullish 4-month channel?

On April 14th, the QQQ broke above its 50 DMA (blue line) and began the trend that you see above. A steady trend line with 6 points is an impressive feat. Today’s market action suggests we may see a test of that trend line sooner rather than later.

The QQQ closed under its prior day’s low and under the 10-DMA, which makes me cautious. Additionally, the SPY came very close to having a bearish engulfing pattern.

However, it’s not the action in the QQQ, the SPY or even the IWM that is my cause for concern. It’s the bonds. Today the TLT had its biggest one-day percentage move lower since June 16th, and strangely the Junk Bonds (JNK) and stocks seemed to ignore it.

Additionally, GLD and SLV had massive declines today. They had their biggest one-day percentage drops since 2013 and 2011, respectively, but stocks seemed to shrug that off too. However, when JNK started to sell off late day in conjunction with stocks, neither bounced back.

The day ended with JNK, LQD, and HYG all well below their 10-DMA. This is a risk-off move that could spill over into the stocks, and not just the mega-cap tech names. This fear was also reflected in the VXX, which closed with a big bullish engulfing pattern (which is not bullish for stocks).

One day doesn’t make a trend, but if JNK, LQD, and HYG continue lower, stocks may soon follow.

Mish has said many times in this blog to keep your eyes on JNK. That’s especially true right now.

Best wishes for your trading,

Geoff Bysshe

President, MarketGauge.com

(Geoff is filling for Mish until August 31st)

  • S&P 500 (SPY): Big intra-day swing created; outside day that closed near low of the day and near low of yesterday. Be cautious under 332. Watch 330 as important support
  • Russell 2000 (IWM): Tapped the 160 resistance area and sold off. Weak outside day. 153 key support
  • Dow (DIA): Stopped at logical area of resistance and closed on LOD, 270 now pivotal support
  • Nasdaq (QQQ): Closed under previous day low and 10 DMA. 260 is key support level and a trendline.
  • TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries): Biggest down day since June 16th. 50 DMA support is at 165