January Forecast and 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: January Forecast and 4th Look at Local Housing Markets


From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.36 million in January, up 4.3% from December’s preliminary pace but down 4.5% from last January’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Local realtor reports, as well as reports from national inventory trackers, suggest that the YOY % decline in the inventory of existing homes for sale last month was a bit larger than that in December.

Finally, local realtor/MLS reports suggest the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 14.5% from last January.

(Note:  The January NAR report will incorporate updated seasonal adjustment factors.)

CR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release January existing home sales tomorrow, Friday, February 18, 2022, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 6.12 million SAAR.   Take the over.

There is much more in the post.  You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/ (Most content is available for free, so please subscribe).