Gold’s Tortured Progress

I frequently use the word “tortured” when discussing gold because so much of the time any progress it makes comes with great pain and suffering. In August GLD broke above the resistance line drawn across the 2011 price top. It was a decisive break, meaning that the breakout was likely to hold, and that the rally was likely to continue. But, no. Instead, typically, it broke down and began a corrective phase that may or may not have run its course.

A rising trend emerged from the November low, but unfortunately, it began retreating from the mid-November top, forming a bearish rising wedge. Since reaching the rising trend line, GLD has been hugging the line rather than moving back to the top of the wedge, so we should expect breakdown soon. If the potential of the current rally is to be fulfilled, GLD will need to find a bottom somewhere above the November low.