Goldman June Payrolls Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 250k in June … employment surveys and Big Data employment indicators generally weakened in the month, and the Challenger report showed an increase in job cuts—particularly in real estate, autos, and media. … We estimate an unchanged unemployment rate at 3.6%—in line with consensus—reflecting a solid rise in household employment offset by a 0.1pp rise in labor force participation to 62.4%.
emphasis added

CR Note: The consensus is for 270 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.6%.