“We have revised our forecast to include 75bp hikes in June and July. This would quickly reset the level of the funds rate at 2.25-2.5%, the FOMC’s median estimate of the neutral rate.”
• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May.
• At 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for May from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in PPI, and a 0.6% increase in core PPI.
On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):
|Percent fully Vaccinated||66.8%||—||≥70.0%1|
|Fully Vaccinated (millions)||221.7||—||≥2321|
|New Cases per Day3🚩||103,821||99,621||≤5,0002|
|Deaths per Day3🚩||276||266||≤502|
|1 Minimum to achieve “herd immunity” (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
✅ Goal met.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.
New cases have quadrupled from the recent low. Deaths are now increasing.