I recently gave a webcast on how to avoid one of the sneakiest and most prolific of the behavioral biases:…
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AAII Percent Bears Surges, but Excessive Sentiment is not a Two-Way Street
The AAII indicators are making waves this week so I will cover two charts. AAII percent bears surged to 39.3%…
Continue ReadingUrban Institute: Median 95% LTV for New Mortgage Originations (Only 5% Downpayment)
NYU Stern professor Arpit Gupta tweeted today: A common intuition is that borrowers put 20% down on a home. The…
Continue ReadingSeptember 17th COVID-19: Over 180 Million Fully Vaccinated
Note: There will be no weekend updates. The CDC is the source for all data. The 7-day average deaths is…
Continue Reading5 More Local Housing Markets in August
In the Newsletter: 5 More Local Housing Markets in August This brings the total to 25 local markets for August.…
Continue ReadingQ3 GDP Forecasts: Around 4.5%
GDP forecasts had been downgraded sharply for Q3 due to COVID, but now seem to have stabilized. Here is a…
Continue ReadingThe Crashes That Nobody’s Talking About
The stock market is having a very good year. The S&P 500 printed 53 new all-time highs through the end…
Continue ReadingSeasonal Stress Sparks Sentiment Swoon
With rising worries about September’s bad reputation for the stock market, and with a small drawdown in stock prices, investors…
Continue ReadingSeptember 16th COVID-19: Over 180 Million Fully Vaccinated
The CDC is the source for all data. The 7-day average deaths is the highest since March 1st. According to…
Continue ReadingHousehold Formation Drives Housing Demand
In the Newsletter: Household Formation Drives Housing Demand If all the missing households from 2020 were formed in 2021, we’d…
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