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Can the Stock Market Hold Up if Commodities Soar?

Last week, the major indices made a successful rally back into a short-term support area. However, many see the price move as a rally back into a volatile resistance zone, leading people to believe we could again see the market break lower.

While this could be the case, as the S&P 500 (SPY), Dow Jones (DIA) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are looking heavy and have been trending lower, the Russell 2000 (IWM) is holding the middle of its current range and could make a push towards its next resistance level near $209. It should also be noted that IWM made a double bottom chart pattern from its gap down last Thursday.

With that said, even with gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) rallying, the equities market is attempting to hold together for the moment.

Historically, precious metals have risen when a market takes a downturn, as people become more defensive with their money. From the gold and silver perspective, this looks to be the case, as we can see their strong upward movement in the daily charts.

Though we have taken profits in precious metals, we have also been holding soft commodities. One that looks to be reaching a pivotal point is the Sugar ETF (CANE). Flirting with its 50- and 200-day moving average, CANE should be watched closely if it can clear and stay over these price levels:

  • 50-DMA = 9.00
  • 200-DMA = 9.03

Additionally, CANE could be setting up on the weekly chart if it can build support over $9.06 or hold over its 50-WMA.

With that said, while we are trading precious metals and looking for more entries into soft commodities, we are still watching for the equities market to hold for the moment. Especially if IWM can stay above its double bottom near $188.

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ETF Summary

  • S&P 500 (SPY): 427 is a support area.
  • Russell 2000 (IWM): 208-209 resistance.
  • Dow (DIA): 331 support.
  • Nasdaq (QQQ): 344 pivotal.
  • KRE (Regional Banks): Could not clear resistance. Now watching to hold 200-DMA at 69.25.
  • SMH (Semiconductors): 272 to clear.
  • IYT (Transportation): 250 pivotal.
  • IBB (Biotechnology): Flirting with the 10-DMA at 125.89.
  • XRT (Retail): Could not hold over the 10-DMA at 77.24.

Forrest Crist-Ruiz

MarketGauge.com

Assistant Director of Trading Research and Education