A brief excerpt:
This is the second look at local markets in May. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
We are seeing a significant change in inventory, and maybe a pickup in new listings. So far, most of the increase in inventory has been due to softer demand – likely because of higher mortgage rates – but we need to keep an eye on new listings too.
On a national basis, we saw record low inventory levels over the Winter. Last year, inventory didn’t bottom seasonally until early April. This year inventory bottomed in February (normal seasonal timing), and recent data from Altos Research and Realtor.com, indicate active inventory was up year-over-year in May. I expect the local market reports will show inventory up year-over-year in May too.
And here is a table for new listings in May. For these areas, new listings were up 5.0% YoY. Last month, new listings in these markets were down 6.2% YoY. This could be a significant change, and the first sign of a pickup in new listings. If new listings increase, combined with less demand, we will see active inventory increase quickly. Notes for all tables:
1) New additions to table in BOLD.
2) Northwest (Seattle), North Texas (Dallas) and Santa Clara (San Jose), Mid-Florida (Tampa, Orlando), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
3) Totals do not include Denver or Atlanta (included in state totals).
There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/