Total new-vehicle sales for September 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,232,200, a 0.1% increase year over year, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData. September 2025 has 24 selling days, one more than September 2024. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 4.5% from 2024.
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 16.2 million units, up 0.3 million units from September 2024.
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Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power:
“In aggregate, September sales results point to another month of strong demand for new vehicles. However, as has been the case for the past few months, assessing the health of the industry requires a closer look at the underlying market dynamics.“The biggest driver of September’s strong sales pace is temporarily inflated demand for electric vehicles. The federal EV tax credit expires at the end of the month, which is causing many shoppers to accelerate their purchase. EV share of retail sales is expected to reach a record of 12.2% this month—up 2.6 percentage points from a year ago. On a volume basis, this equates to a 27.5% increase in EV sales—selling day adjusted—from a year ago. Conversely, demand for non-EVs is muted, with non-EV sales down 2.5% this month from a year ago. The second key driver is affordability. Although again, the EV dynamic means aggregate results need careful evaluation. In totality, average vehicle prices continue to rise, discounts remain low and monthly finance payments are at record highs—all of which affects the overall sales pace.”
emphasis added
From Haig Stoddard at Omdia (pay site): US Light Vehicle Sales in September Tracking to Another Gain as Auto Industry Casts a Wary Eye on 4Q
September US light-vehicle sales will continue the market strength seen all year, but all eyes are on the fourth quarter as tariff-related pull-ahead volume dissipates, EV credits disappear, and automakers price their ’26 models.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and J.D. Power’s forecast for September (Red).
On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the J.D. Power forecast of 16.2 million SAAR would be up 0.8% from last month, and up 2.5% from a year ago.