Q1 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-High 1% Range

Special Note: There was a surge in gold imports in January. There is a time lag for when the imported gold will show up in inventories. GDPNow will correct for this once the gold is included as an increase in inventories, but currently GDPNow just included the import side. That is why GDPNow’s tracking estimate of GDP is likely way too low.

From BofA:

Our 1Q GDP tracking is down from 2.3% q/q saar to 1.9% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. Also, after the second estimate of 4Q GDP, our 4Q tracking is up one-tenth to 2.4% q/q saar. [Mar 7th]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

The details of the trade balance report indeed indicated that elevated gold imports contributed the bulk of increase in imports in January. Goods exports were softer than suggested by the Advance Economic Indicators report, while wholesale inventories were slightly firmer. Taken together, we lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +1.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Mar 6th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.4 percent on March 6, up from -2.8 percent on March 3. After recent releases from the Institute for Supply Management, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 0.0 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, to 0.4 percent and 4.8 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -3.57 percentage points to -3.84 percentage points. [Mar 6th estimate]