Goldman Expects the FOMC to Pause

Yesterday I wrote: FOMC Preview: Uncertainty, Likely 25bp Hike, Maybe Pause

This morning Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle wrote: March FOMC Preview: Pause

We expect the FOMC to pause at its March meeting this week because of stress in the banking system. … This would mean taking a pause in the inflation fight, but that should not be such a problem. …The inflation problem actually looks less urgent now than last summer because near-term inflation expectations have fallen sharply and long-term inflation expectations have remained anchored.

The economic projections will likely show somewhat higher GDP growth in 2023, a lower unemployment rate in 2023, and small upward revisions to the inflation numbers. … We have left our Fed forecast unchanged beyond March and continue to expect three additional 25bp rate hikes in May, June, and July, which would raise the funds rate to a peak of 5.25-5.5%.
emphasis added